1- #Israel is in a big dilemma. If it goes for a #ground_invasion, it’ll be incredibly costly, & most probably it won’t achieve its goal.
If it doesn’t go in, it’ll look weak. #Iran Co. will claim they deterred Israel, which will trigger another #war later to prove otherwise.
2- Facing this dilemma, #Israel might choose to expand the war on #Gaza to become a regional one utilizing the:
A. #US unprecedented swift military deployment in its support
B. Open unconditional #Western (#European) support for Israel
C. Total impunity Israel enjoys
3- Expanding #Israel’s war on #Gaza to become regional one will create a new multi-layered dilemma:
A. Put an end to #Netanyahu’s political life
B. Drag the #US to an Israeli war-which will only accelerate its decline
C. Spread chaos in #Europe
D. Benefit #China & #Russia
4- Besides these scenarios, there’s a typical 1: Raising costs on #Palestinians to discourage #Hamas from doing what it did (2006-#Lebanon scenario). But that wont work either cz:
A. Palestinians have not state
B. Unlike #Hezbollah, #Hamas isn’t working on behalf of #Iran
5- There is no good option for #Israel. There is bad, worse, & the horrible one. All of them will leave (-) strategic implications. This strategic dilemma is created by Israel itself. It is an accumulation of decades of same vicious circle. The question is why this happened?
6- The obvious answer is: “You can’t sustain #occupation & #colonialism forever. You need to give the #Palestinians their legitimate rights” or they will take them sooner or later despite you & your backers. Either you do this via just agreement or you suffer the consequences.
7- Why #Israel is not doing that (#Peace)? Cz:
A. It believes it has the upper hand & thus no need to give any rights to anyone
B. Unconditional support of the West (mainly the root cause of the problem: #Germany-killed Jews, #England-gave them Palestine, & #US protected them)
8- #Israel refused even the most humble #Arab initiatives including the late King Abdullah’s -of #Saudi Arabia- one, which became #AL initiative. The logic was simple, land for #peace. Two states solution for a sustainable #peace. Israel threw it in the garbage and chose to:
9- #Israel chose to follow individual normalization with some #Arab govs. rather opting for sustainable peace by giving the #Palestinians their rights. It was inevitable that jumping over the Palestinians & their just cause will backfire sooner or later. It won’t work at all.
10- To conclude this thread on #Israel’s situation, its current options, and the strategic dilemma it suffers. The root cause of the problem is known, the solution is known. In the absence of this solution, Israel will always be in this dilemma, & certainly there will be no #peace