The double-edged sword of democracy refers to how freedom of choice comes with the freedom to make mistakes. Relatedly, many Turks negatively view recent election results in TRNC/KKTC (North Cyprus), which saw the pro-Türkiye incumbent Ersin Tatar replaced with pro-federalism Tufan Erhurman. Tufan’s party has at times criticized Turkish influence in Cyprus, with some members even calling for the withdrawal of Turkish troops. Conversely, Ersin promoted closer relations with Türkiye, and pushed for a two-state solution.
Due to the geostrategic sensitivity of Cyprus to Türkiye, and the encroachment of hostile Israel in Southern Cyprus, numerous influential Turks, including Devlet Bahçeli, called for TRNC/KKTC to be rapidly annexed by Türkiye, preventing a possible future Greek/Israeli takeover. This situation is similar to Russia’s decision to annex the Crimea from an increasingly pro-Western Ukraine, due to its strategic importance.
While the knee-jerk reaction is to apply leverage to solve a problem, the more challenging, strategic path often offers a better solution. Similarly, while conquering territory by force is straightforward, controlling territory politically is difficult, even for a superpower. Using force to annul the TRNC/KKTC election results and annex Northern Cyprus is possible, but it would support Ersin’s narrative of a domineering, unwelcomed Türkiye. Northern Cyprus would fall under Turkish occupation, but it would be a fortress with enemies behind the gates: the population would regard the takeover as occupation, not liberation.
Erdoğan appears to sense this, and has chosen instead to congratulate Ersin’s victory, and express support for Turkish Cypriots’ right to self-determination. By allowing Turkish Cypriots to make what is likely a mistake, they are also afforded an opportunity to learn from their mistake. If Ersin’s push for federalism backfires once again due to Greek maximalism and intransigence, Turkish Cypriots will recognize a two-state solution as the only alternative, and decades of Greek/Israeli efforts to subvert Turkish Cypriots through leftist unions will be wasted.
When Ekrem İmamoğlu won Istanbul, political pundits predicted the end of Erdoğan. The decision to contest election results only further degraded AKP’s position. Now, years later, Erdoğan’s opposition likely wishes Ekrem was denied power, as his corruption and party infighting has destroyed the CHP’s future. This shows how a quicker and simpler forceful approach may give the illusion of victory, while in fact undermining one’s long term goals. Even the projects of superpowers, such as the 20-year US occupation of Afghanistan, or the Russian/Iranian occupation of Syria, collapsed nearly overnight despite an apparent monopoly of force. The lesson is clear: the peoples’ will must be respected, even if it’s inconvenient.
