by Arnaud Bertrand
There is actually some chance Gaza could end up being the U.S.’s Suez crisis moment, when the UK, France and Israel had to give up an invasion aimed at retaking control over the Suez canal after political pressure from the US, the Soviet Union, and the UN. It effectively highlighted and confirmed the UK and France’s declining status among great powers.
Similarly the international community could come to the conclusion that the U.S.’s unconditional backing of Israel is simply too destructive and cannot stand anymore, putting so much political pressure they’d be forced to back down.
I can see this happening. The political pressure is certainly there already from an immense majority of the world. I guess it’d take a different form compared to Suez since the U.S. isn’t on the ground invading Gaza with Israel (although they’re in the air with drones and things of that nature), but it might have a similar effect as the Suez crisis if they’re effectively pressured into bringing Israel to heel and having to adopt a solution they didn’t initiate (for instance one that China or Arab states would be driving).
I guess it depends how broad and united an international coalition can be built against what Israel is doing, whether they can propose a coherent and acceptable solution and, ultimately, how forcefully they pressure the U.S.
The U.S. could also see this coming and preempt it by proposing their own solution, and there again it depends how broad and united a coalition they can build around it.
All this to say we might be on the eve of witnessing an immense test of diplomatic influence that might be the clearest sign yet of where we stand in terms of relative power in our new multipolar world.