Dr Mustafa Öztop – Middle East Researcher
Throughout history, Yemen has been one of those regions where external actors have failed to find what they were looking for. Yemen can be likened to the narratives put forward by the major powers regarding Afghanistan. Many states have sought to control Yemen, yet very few have managed to do so fully, let alone sustain their control. The Zaydis, who have maintained a presence in the region through the Zaydi Imams, have established the region’s longest-standing political tradition. Although the Ottoman Empire seized control of Yemen at certain times, it failed to maintain this for many years. Similarly, British control did not last as long as that of the Ottomans.KING ABDULAZIZ’S ADVICE TO HIS SONIn 1934, tensions between Imam Yahya and the Saudis in Yemen escalated. Under the command of the Saudi princes Suud and Faisal, Saudi forces captured the city of Harad and advanced towards Hodeidah. Meanwhile, Imam Yahya’s forces in Yemen had retreated, and some tribes in the region had pledged allegiance to Faisal. Following these developments, Imam Yahya sent messages to King Abdulaziz proposing a ceasefire, whilst British and Italian forces in the region also began to mobilize. Whilst Faisal believed he would advance further from there and secure a great victory, his father, Abdulaziz, ordered a retreat. This was because Abdulaziz had taken into account that, in the event of a possible war, he would not receive the support he expected from the British due to concerns over Italian intervention, and that maintaining the supply lines stretching from the Hejaz to Hodeidah was becoming increasingly difficult.By the 1960s, Egypt had intervened in an attempt to gain control of Yemen. Drawing on his experience, King Faisal argued that the Yemenis should be allowed to decide on the form of government for their own country and adopted a policy aimed at securing an agreement amongst all parties in Yemen. However, Faisal’s policy failed to alter Egypt’s stance, and stability could not be established in Yemen. In the wake of these developments, the losses suffered by Egypt during the 1967 Arab–Israeli War, led by Nasser, led to a request for support from King Faisal, which in turn prevented Egypt from continuing its rivalry with the Saudis over Yemen. Although relative stability was achieved because of these developments, it was not possible to prevent conflicts in Yemen. However, threats to Saudi Arabia from Yemen were averted. This success was made possible by correctly assessing Yemen’s internal dynamics and relying on financial aid and diplomacy rather than options such as military intervention.THE RIYADH–TEHRAN RIVALRYSince the 2000s, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen has intensified. The fact that Badr al-Din al-Houthi received religious education in Iran and increased his influence in Yemen has escalated sectarian rivalry in the region. In 2004, the Ansarullah movement—founded by Hussein, the son of Bedreddin al-Husi, who was under the influence of Iranian Shi’ism, in response to the exclusion of the Zaidis in the north—became a prominent actor in this rivalry. US policies in the Middle East, which paved the way for Iran, also played a role in the escalation of this rivalry. In Yemen, the Zaidi Shias are one of the region’s key local players. This is due to the growing influence of Iran over the Houthis, the influence of Qom on the movement’s leadership, the transformation of regional circumstances into shared interests with Iranian backing, and, in particular, the Saudis’ turn to military options and their failure to achieve complete success with these options.ARE ISRAEL AND IRAN GROWING CLOSER? The Mecca Agreement has led to new and sudden developments in the region. The most striking of these developments has been the sharp and marked change in relations between Iran and the UAE. Iranian President Pezeşkiyan stated that, during his talks with UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, they had agreed to put the past behind them and look to the future. Ever since the US launched its war against Iran, the UAE has been the party most adversely affected by Iran’s retaliatory actions against the Gulf states. In the face of Iran’s stance, there have been numerous developments suggesting that Israel and the US sought to provoke a war between the Gulf states and Iran. Against this backdrop, the swift declaration by Iran and the UAE following the Mecca Alliance that they would put the past behind them and look to the future represents a step against the alliance. It is well known that the UAE has continued its normalization agreements and close relations with Israel despite Israel’s genocide in Gaza. In recent months, the dissolution of the Southern Transitional Council—supported by the UAE—in Yemen, reflecting the Saudi Arabia–UAE rivalry, and the subsequent rapid territorial gains by the Houthis in areas from which the UAE had withdrawn, strengthen the likelihood that a trap has been set for Saudi Arabia. In Mecca, where the alliance was signed, these recent developments have caused concern in recent days.THE MECCA ALLIANCEWhen Yemen’s history, geography, logistics and terrain, as well as its social dynamics and local actors, are considered, it is not easy to permeate to Yemen. Conversely, Yemen cannot be ignored when it comes to establishing stability and peace in the region. In terms of its location, it can be said that the Mecca Alliance is the actor with the most strategic and effective capabilities in Yemen. The fact that Saudi Arabia shares a long border with Yemen, and that if Turkey and Pakistan were to form two vertices of a triangle, Saudi Arabia and Yemen would constitute the third vertex, strengthens the Mecca Alliance’s capabilities from a geopolitical perspective.For these reasons, if we are to outline the steps the Mecca Alliance is likely to take in the coming period, the priority will be to take swift action to ensure Saudi Arabia’s security. Subsequently, no allowance will be made for the balance of power sought to be established in Yemen through the Houthis. During this process, communication and engagement with Zaidi groups not under Iranian influence will be a significant step. Bringing together all groups seeking stability in Yemen and uniting them under the umbrella of the Yemeni Government will mark a significant milestone towards a solution in Yemen. If this can be achieved, it will be inevitable that the Houthis will be forced to come to the negotiating table. Consequently, Israel’s plan to pit Muslim states against one another and Iran’s efforts to destabilize the region through sectarian policies will be thwarted. The way will be paved for a new political process in Yemen, and a process like that followed in Libya – where Turkey first supported the legitimate government and subsequently brought it together with the Benghazi government in eastern Libya – could be implemented. In this way, the architecture of peace and security that Turkey has extended to its neighbors will have reached Yemen, and the Mecca Alliance will have implemented its defense-oriented peace policy in the region. In this way, Iran’s last remaining trump card—which is destabilising the region—will be taken away, and Israel’s approach, which disregards the other states in the region, will be curbed.
First published in Yenisafak.com
