American analyst Charles Lister explains current developments in his Twitter thread;
When it comes to reports of a US military withdrawal from #Syria, there are many moving parts in play, but it’s clearly coming.
The US military’s decisive shift in posture & priorities post-#Assad offered the clearest evidence. A 🧵:
Since #Assad fell in Dec 2024, the US military has established relations with #Damascus & proactively facilitated & pushed talks between the #SDF & #Syria’s new gov’t.
For CENTCOM: the #SDF *must* integrate into the new #Syria.
The March 10 framework agreement signed by #Syria President Ahmed al-Sharaa & #SDF leader Mazloum Abdi was a direct result of US mediation — and from March 6, of *intense* pressure on the #SDF (by @CENTCOM’s Gen Kurilla & @CJTFOIR’s MG Leahy).
@CENTCOM @CJTFOIR Over the past week, the #SDF has vacated #Aleppo city & the Tishreen Dam in E. #Aleppo — ceding control to #Syria gov’t authority. Further phases will see departures from Deir Hafer, Markada & the Qaraqozak Bridge.
All facilitated/pushed by the US.
@CENTCOM @CJTFOIR On the counterterrorism front, #ISIS has taken a big hit from #Assad’s fall — with attacks down by 80%.
BUT, #ISIS is now recovering in #SDF areas — with 42/43 attacks in 2025 in #Syria’s northeast.
ISIS is on the ropes in Syria. A successful transition in Damascus could deliver a knockout blowFor much of the past two decades, ISIS has enjoyed favorable conditions in Syria, but since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, dynamics have changed. With Assad’s departure, ISIS l…https://www.mei.edu/publications/isis-ropes-syria-successful-transition-damascus-could-deliver-knockout-blow
@CENTCOM @CJTFOIR Meanwhile, the US military & intel community has established a fruitful relationship with #Damascus — with shared intel taking out multiple senior #ISIS leaders & foiling 9 major urban plots.
A US partner is now within #Syria’s Defense Ministry.
@CENTCOM @CJTFOIR In the past 3 weeks, local sources claim large US military logistics convoys have moved some equipment *out* of bases in Deir ez Zour towards #Iraq — indicating a potential preliminary move to draw resources away from areas that could soon turn to #Damascus.
@CENTCOM @CJTFOIR With a US disengagement from #Syria on the cards, the US has also supported the establishment of a new regional security alliance — comprising #Syria, #Iraq, #Turkey, #Jordan & #Lebanon.
That’ll be crucial to longer-term #ISIS-linked challenges.
Follow Charles Lister: @charles_lister
