Below is an article based on the thread from Eva J. Koulouriotis (
By Eva J. Koulouriotis
On the evening of Thursday, March 6, 2025, Syria’s coastal region, a longtime stronghold of the ousted Assad regime, witnessed a violent and organized attack that has sent shockwaves through the country and the broader Middle East. Former officers and members of Bashar al-Assad’s army launched a coordinated assault on military sites, police stations, and security patrols belonging to the new Syrian administration, particularly in Alawite-majority areas such as Jableh, Tartous, Latakia, Banias, Draykish, and Qardaha. This article provides a detailed analysis of the circumstances surrounding this attack, the parties involved, and its far-reaching repercussions for Syria and the region.
The Scope and Scale of the Attack
The assault, led by former Brigadier General Ghaith Dallah—a notorious war criminal and leader in the 4th Division, which was closely tied to Maher al-Assad, Bashar’s brother, and supported by Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—involved hundreds of fighters armed with individual, medium, and some heavy weapons. The attackers targeted key locations, cutting off major international highways like the Aleppo-Latakia and Homs-Tartous routes. In the initial hours, they seized control of several neighborhoods, killing at least 150 Syrian security personnel and dozens of civilians, with particularly heavy casualties in Jableh and Latakia. They also besieged the naval college in Latakia and took control of the Istamo helicopter airport in the Latakia countryside.
This well-planned operation aimed to establish complete control over Syria’s Mediterranean coast, exploiting the fragile security situation under the new Syrian administration led by Ahmad al-Sharaa. The scale and coordination of the attack suggest a deliberate strategy to destabilize the region and challenge the transitional government’s authority.
The Role of Iran: Fingerprints of Tehran
Evidence points strongly to Iranian involvement as the primary instigator and beneficiary of this escalation. Just one day before the attack, Iran’s Fars News Agency, closely aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, published a statement from a group calling itself the “Syrian Islamic Resistance Front – Uli al-Bas,” claiming its presence in Syria and its intent to confront the new Syrian administration as part of Iran’s “Resistance Axis.” This militia, which emerged after Assad’s fall, had previously claimed responsibility for attacks against Israeli forces in southern Syria, indicating a direct connection to Tehran’s Quds Force.
Iranian leaders, including Khamenei, had signaled their intent to support anti-administration movements in Syria following Assad’s ouster in late 2024. Khamenei’s remarks shortly after Assad’s fall emphasized the need to back Syrians opposing the new government, while Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei’s advisor, warned of an impending civil war just days before the coastal attack. Reports also indicate the formation of an operations room in Iraq, involving IRGC officers, former Assad army members, and Hezbollah representatives, aimed at destabilizing Syria. Brigadier General Dallah, known for his ties to the IRGC and Hezbollah, reportedly traveled from Iraq to Syria shortly before the attack, further solidifying Iran’s role.
Iran’s Strategic Gains
Tehran stands to gain significantly from this escalation and potential civil war in Syria. First, Iran could re-establish supply lines for weapons and funds to its ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon, which has faced challenges following recent conflicts with Israel. Second, sectarian tensions in Syria could bolster Iran’s influence among Shiite communities in Iraq and Lebanon, countering declining popularity due to economic hardships and losses. For instance, Hezbollah could use the chaos to justify retaining its arsenal, framing it as necessary to protect Shiites from Sunnis and Christians rather than solely for confronting Israel. Third, Iran might exploit the security vacuum to launch attacks on northern Israel from Syrian territory, pressuring the Israeli government and potentially forcing a confrontation with Damascus. Finally, this instability could distract the Trump administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reducing diplomatic and military pressure on Tehran.
Regional Reactions and Tensions
The attack has heightened regional tensions, drawing responses from key players. Hours after the assault began, a large Turkish military convoy entered northern Syria, positioning itself in the Manbij area to prevent the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from exploiting the chaos to expand control over the Euphrates River. Turkey, which played a pivotal role in Assad’s ouster, views Iran’s support for the SDF and other militias as a direct threat to its national security, exacerbating diplomatic tensions with Tehran. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent criticism of Iran’s militia-based foreign policy, initially interpreted as targeting Iran’s support for the SDF, now appears to encompass Tehran’s backing of groups like Dallah’s on the Syrian coast.
Israel, meanwhile, raised its alert status along the Syrian-Israeli border, reflecting concerns about security threats from Syrian territory, including potential ISIS resurgence and renewed Hezbollah supply lines. Saudi Arabia, a regional rival of Iran, quickly voiced support for the new Syrian administration and condemned efforts to destabilize Syria, underscoring the broader geopolitical stakes.
The New Syrian Administration’s Challenges
The new Syrian administration, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, faces mounting economic and security challenges that exacerbate its vulnerability. The continued imposition of U.S. sanctions, despite some easing under the Biden administration, has crippled Syria’s economy, with 90% of the population living below the poverty line and only 20% of infrastructure intact after 13 years of war. The attack on the coast, combined with threats from the SDF, Iran, and ISIS, underscores the fragile security environment and the urgent need for regional and international support to stabilize the country.
Conclusion: A Crossroads for Syria and the Middle East
The attack on Syria’s coast is a stark reminder of the region’s volatility and the complex interplay of local, regional, and international actors. While it is premature to predict the outcome, the involvement of Iran and the potential for sectarian conflict could plunge Syria into a new cycle of violence, with devastating consequences. Europe risks a new refugee crisis, ISIS could regain footing, Turkey and Israel face heightened security threats, and Gulf states may feel the ripple effects of instability.
The choice ahead is clear: regional powers and the international community must pursue a diplomatic agreement to stabilize Syria, or risk a new wave of violence that could engulf the Middle East. Without concerted action, the fragile hopes for peace and reconstruction in Syria could be lost, leaving the region—and the world—paying a steep price.
