By Yusuf Erim
At face value the visits were successful, accomplishing tangible achievements such as a $2bn solar energy investment, military framework agreement and increased defense industry cooperation.
But, the actual success stems from the intangible, a paradigm shift in the understanding and approach of these three countries towards one another. There seems to be a very visible and sincere desire for increased cooperation and coordination amongst these states. This is not only driven by an alignment on regional issues but also a disappointment in regional and int’l problem solving mechanisms. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan summed it up very well in a recent interview saying something along the lines of – if a hegemon solves your problem you might not be happy with the solution and the bill could be quite expensive. So there seems to be a simultaneous awakening amongst leading regional actors for the need of a dynamic minilateral grouping that could shape events, change realities and provide solutions.
It’s this geopolitical awakening that has driven rumors of a Saudi-Pakistan-Türkiye collective defense agreement and set the atmosphere for Erdogan visiting Riyadh and Cairo, a trip that would have been unimaginable a decade ago. But, these countries all understand that what brings them together is much bigger than what kept them apart.
Another major shift in understanding for all these actors is their tolerance for regional voids and non-state actors. They all have seen how detrimental the allowance of geopolitical voids and the filling of voids by non-state actors can be. I believe this will now be a policy adopted by the regional power players where they will work together with a much more hawkish posture to ensure regional states do not allow voids to be filled by non-state actors.
The situation in Iran is a big test for this awakened group. While none of these countries view Tehran as an ally, most view it as an adversary or competitor, they do not want to see a foreign military intervention that could destabilize the country. An Iran that descends into civil war by modest estimates means 1mn dead, 10mn refugees, the birth of well armed new terror groups and the contagion of instability in neighboring countries. This is a scenario that an overwhelming majority of regional actors want to avoid.
Syria and Libya appear to be a bright spot where cooperation amongst these three actors have brought about positive domestic results and also built confidence in the respective bilateral relationships. Somalia and Gaza (quite possibly Yemen) seem to be the next two major issues where this de facto grouping could work together to create a regionally acceptable solution.
