By Dr. Cemil Doğaç İpek
Saudi Arabia is one of the most important regional actors in the Middle East, shaping developments in the region with its economic power and political influence. For Saudi Arabia, the Syrian issue is not only a regional crisis but also a multi-layered issue with historical, political and strategic dimensions. Saudi Arabia’s policies in Syria should be considered not only in terms of relations with the new administration in Damascus or the US-backed illegal administration east of the Euphrates, but also in the context of different dynamics such as competition with Iran, increasing its influence in the Levant, access to water resources, and strengthening its ties with the tribes in the region (many of which it is related to).
Saudi Arabia’s interest in Syria does not only date back to recent decades. Relations between the two countries are directly linked to the shaping of the borders of the Middle East in the post-Turkish Empire era and Saudi Arabia’s efforts to establish its regional hegemony.
In the 1920s and 1930s, the founder of Saudi Arabia, Abdul Aziz bin Abd al-Rahman, saw Syria as a natural Arab geography and was in competition with the Hashemite dynasty. Although Britain’s support for the Hashemite regimes in the region limited Saudi Arabia’s direct interventions in Syria, Riyadh pursued different strategies to increase its influence over Syria.
During the Cold War, Syria’s military coup in 1949 was seen as part of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to increase its influence in the region. During this period, Riyadh supported the monarchies in the Arab world, while distancing itself from the Baathist and pan-Arabist movements in Syria.
In the 2010s and the Arab Spring period, with the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, Saudi Arabia supported the Sunni opposition against the Bashar al-Assad regime and actively intervened in Syria to break Iran’s influence in the region. It is well known that this intervention was largely in alliance with the United States.
Saudi Arabia’s Syria policy is driven by both historical ties and contemporary political and economic dynamics. The first of these is the rivalry with Iran and the policy of balancing against the Shiite Crescent. One of the most important reasons for Saudi Arabia’s interest in Syria is its aim to limit Iran’s influence in the region. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has been pursuing a Shiite-oriented expansionist policy in the Middle East and has been trying to build a “Shiite Crescent” extending to the Mediterranean Sea through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. One of Saudi Arabia’s main concerns is this: Riyadh believes that the control of Syria by an Iranian-backed regime would increase Iran’s influence in the region and pose a long-term threat to Saudi Arabia’s security. Saudi Arabia has supported Sunni opposition groups in Syria as a counterweight to Iran, but it has taken a long time for this strategy to be fully successful due to the frequent revision of the main US objectives in the region and Russia’s strong support for the Assad regime.
One of the main elements of Saudi Arabia’s policy towards Syria is to increase its influence in the region by utilizing tribal ties. Throughout history, Saudi Arabia has established strong ties with the Arab tribes in the region and has used these ties as a strategic tool. Large tribes such as Shammar and Aneze, which have strong ties between Saudi Arabia and Syria, have historically been critical to the control of the region. Saudi Arabia seeks to expand its sphere of influence in Syria by creating a balance of power based on tribes. In this context, Saudi Arabia can be expected to increase its influence in the region by supporting the tribes more actively in the future.
Another of Saudi Arabia’s regional objectives is to gain influence in the Levant. The Levant has historically been an economically and politically strategic region for the Arabian Peninsula. Damascus and its environs are a geography that Saudi Arabia attaches importance to both historically and in terms of commercial relations. Saudi Arabia’s support for Sunni groups in Lebanon and its fight against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah is considered as an extension of its Syria policy. Activity in the Eastern Mediterranean is critical for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia seeks to establish a strategic balance in Syria in order to have a say in energy politics in the Eastern Mediterranean and to control the trade routes in the region.
One of Saudi Arabia’s regional objectives is access to water resources and strategic security. Saudi Arabia’s desert climate and limited water resources increase its interest in water politics in the region. Saudi Arabia sees Syria’s water resources, such as the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, as a strategic advantage in the long run. Saudi Arabia’s becoming an effective actor in Syria is also critical for the country’s water security. When analyzed in terms of climate change and future scenarios, difficult access to water resources may force Saudi Arabia to invest more in water policies in the region.
Saudi Arabia’s future policies in Syria may change depending on developments in the region and the international balance of power. Instead of engaging in a direct confrontation with Iran, Saudi Arabia may pursue a strategy aimed at maintaining the balance in the region and support the Colani Administration against Iran while supporting the SDF under the US umbrella east of the Euphrates.
-Saudi Arabia could expand its sphere of influence in Syria by more actively supporting the tribes in the region (especially east of the Euphrates)
– Saudi Arabia could balance Iran’s commercial influence by increasing its influence through economic investments in Syria and the Levant.
In conclusion, Saudi Arabia’s Syria policy is shaped by a combination of historical, economic and strategic factors. Riyadh is pursuing different strategies in Syria to limit Iran’s influence in the region, strengthen tribal ties, increase access to water resources and expand its influence in the Levant. In the future, I believe that Saudi Arabia will manage its relations with Syria in a more strategic manner to achieve its regional goals. I believe that those in Turkey who are interested in the region should increase their level of interest in Saudi Arabia.
Source: turkgun.com
