by Hande Fırat
If you remember the famous film scene in which everyone pulls a gun on each other, it is called the ‘Mexican standoff’. This term, which is also used in international relations, describes an inextricable, high-tension situation. Today, Syria is hosting the Mexican Standoff and the ‘Balance of Terror’ of the numerous actors in it. The Balance of Terror means that the actors have filled and frozen their space. Disruption of the status quo is not in anyone’s favour at the moment. If one of these actors tries to change the balance, someone in the Mexican Standoff may pull the trigger and the situation may turn into a ring of fire. The reason for this introduction is to explain what the PKK/PYD terrorist organisation may cause with the so-called local elections it plans to hold on 11 June.
WHAT IS THE TERRORIST ORGANISATION AFTER?
The PKK/PYD terrorist organisation is preparing for a so-called election that will raise tensions in Syria. However, when you look behind and dig deeper, you will see the picture very clearly:
CANDIDATE, VOTER AND VOTER ARE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE TERRORIST ORGANISATION
– Last December, the terrorist organisation announced a so-called social contract. The document, which contains the trappings of democracy, contradicts the constitution of the current Syrian state.
1- The document refers to a state called the Syrian Democratic Republic. However, this is not the real name of the state, but the Syrian Arab Republic. In short, it is a document referring to a state that does not exist.
2- Again, they plan to establish an administrative organisation with the document. However, administrative organisation does not exist in the constitution of the Syrian Arab Republic, in other words, it is unconstitutional. Moreover, they want to change the mapping process by defining cantons.
3- The document also determines who can vote. Everyone over 18 can vote. However, a voter card is a must. The condition for obtaining a voter card is 5 years of residence. In other words, the Arab population who cannot fulfil this condition in the Kurdish-majority region cannot vote. Another condition is to take part in the PYD army. In short, it determines the voters from its own organisation base.
4- In order to be a candidate in the so-called election, the approval of the so-called high election council is required. The 16-member so-called council is headed by a co-chairmanship system consisting of a man and a woman. The special feature of these two co-chairs is that they are from the terrorist organisation PYD. In order to be a candidate, the approval of this election committee is required. In other words, the terrorist organisation decides who will be a candidate.
5- Even if there is a so-called election, those elected will not be able to act independently. According to the document linking the mayors of the 7 cantons to the Union of Municipalities, this structure is headed by the co-chairs determined by the terrorist organisation PYD.
In short, the elections in 7 cantons, 40 cities and 104 towns bring the same KCK structure of the terrorist organisation as we know it.
WHY DID THEY POSTPONE?
The region is complicated, there are conflicts between Arab tribes, Barzani supporters and the terrorist organisation. Not all Kurds are on the side of the terrorist organisation. However, the organisation played another game. It created a PYD-led party called the Future of Syria Party, which is run by the Arab majority. Since the structuring of this party was not completed, it postponed the so-called elections on 30 May to 11 June.
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE MEXICAN STANDOFF?
The best scenario is to postpone the elections with the intervention of all actors who want the status quo to remain intact. It is already a mess locally. The attitude of the US, which has been feeding, growing, arming and training the organisation since 2014, is very important here.
WHAT WILL AMERICA DO IN THE FIELD?
– The US State Department has officially said that it does not support the election process.
– ‘We are not behind it in terms of timing and scope,’ the Americans say.
– At the same time, the US is uncomfortable with this step forward, because it has sent a message to the organisation: ‘Your work is worth 20, but you want more, don’t ask for 40’. Because at the moment, this step of the terrorist organisation does not fit into the game set up by the US. This so-called election is one click beyond the space opened by the US to the terrorist organisation.
– There is also a serious problem for the US, the PKK and PYD terrorist organisation is trying to impose its own agenda. The worst scenario for the US is to lose the terrorist organisation it has trained and equipped to someone else, especially Iran. What is worse is a question: what if the terrorist organisation targets US bases? That is why America says that it is approaching the incident with a cool head.
– On the other hand, America is seeking dialogue with Damascus through the back door. Their aim is to bring the PYD and Damascus closer.
THE MESSAGE THAT TURKEY CONVEYED TO ALL ACTORS
Turkey is totally against the formation of autonomous local governments with cantons and then a terrorist state. If these elections take place, it has already informed all actors that it will not recognise the legitimacy of the elections. Moreover, it expects the same attitude from America.
– The US and Turkey have been conducting strategic, diplomatic and bureaucratic negotiations on the issue since May.
– Turkey is in contact with the tribes in the region.
– Turkey has clearly conveyed its point of view to its interlocutors. The expectation, especially from the US, is that the legitimacy of the elections will not be accepted. International law and social dynamics also require this.
– According to Ankara, no one would or should want a situation that is unacceptable for Turkey, because the possible outcome has been expressed many times by President Erdoğan himself: ‘Whatever is necessary will be done’.
– If tensions rise and the terrorist organisation escalates against Turkey, all plans are ready. The terrorist organisation will be repaid in kind.
WILL THE US WITHDRAW OR LEAVE THE ORGANISATION?
– For now, the US is in the region because its presence does not generate a significant cost and because of the CENTCOM effect. However, if the conditions change, if politics changes, if the cost increases for the US, it may leave without looking back.
– As for the question of what Trump would do if he becomes president… Trump is accustomed to doing piecework as a business person. For this reason, this relationship, which has been defined as tactical and temporary from the beginning, may suddenly turn into piecemeal and then lead to withdrawal.
– Turkey is preparing for every possibility. If the US withdraws, Turkey may not have a role inside Syria. The showdown may be settled by the forces inside Syria.
NO DIPLOMATIC CONTACT BETWEEN DAMASCUS AND ANKARA
– For the time being, there is no diplomatic contact between Damascus and Ankara. If needed, it is carried out by intelligence organisations. However, the diplomatic level has not been reached.
– On the other hand, there is a congress of the Ba’ath Party at the end of May and elections on 15 July. In the meantime, it is understood that Damascus and the so-called autonomous administration are discussing the possibility of finding an intermediary. It is rumoured that possibilities such as granting quotas in the general elections are on the table.
– We also see the American influence here. It is also effective in the developments in the region. The Americans are stuck in the Palestinian issue. Iran has opened space both in Palestine and Syria. The main goal of the US is to bring Israel and Saudi Arabia together and disable Hamas. For this purpose, it would not be wrong to say that the Damascus regime is making a call to ‘move away from Iran, come to this camp and be less soft on the PYD’.
SPECULATION THAT PYD WILL BE TOLERATED IN EXCHANGE FOR PKK LIQUIDATION
This speculation has been rumoured in the corridors of Ankara for some time, namely that if the PKK is liquidated, Ankara will turn a blind eye to the PYD. But is it true?
– There is no such bargain. These are conspiracy theories.
– Turkey previously said to the US: ‘As an ally, destroy Qandil and hand over the names on the list of terrorist organisations’. But the US did not do this.
– PYD-PKK cannot be separated because the main executive staff is common. There is no one in the PYD who is not a PKK member. In fact, the US knows this as well.
THE ORGANISATION IS WORRIED ABOUT MONEY
In order to understand the damage caused by Turkey’s operations to the organisation, it is necessary to look at the language it uses to the West. The terrorist organisation is trying to get support from the West by saying ‘We have gone back at least 10 years’.
FINALLY…
If you say the result, the actors may postpone the elections in order not to disturb the balance of terror. Otherwise, all actors know that Turkey will not recognise their legitimacy, will take every necessary step and will not allow the infrastructure of a terrorist state.
Auto translated from hurriyet.com.tr
