With the US/Israeli war against Iran, the global geopolitical structure is finally collapsing, and events are moving almost too fast to follow. Below, I’ll summarize what factors triggered the war, how the war is going, and how it’ll likely end.
First, the US has adopted a strategy of strangulation against China. This means targeting its cheap oil suppliers worldwide, hurting their economy and ability to challenge US dominance. The regime change in Venezuela was an example of this, and its success emboldened Trump to try his luck against Iran. Additionally, Israel has been pressuring the US to attack Iran for years. This can be seen as an attempt to distract the Israeli public from Netanyahu’s legal troubles, and to create a state of fear justifying hardliner politics and increasing totalitarianism. Furthermore, Israel is aware its influence in America is collapsing, so it’s desperate to eliminate remaining regional rivals before it loses US support. Finally, the success of previous airstrikes against Iran, recent protests, collapse of the Shia Crescent, crippling of Hezbollah, and regional isolation highlighted its weakness, further emboldening the decision to attack.
The war began during negotiations, with a decapitation strike on the Iranian leadership. Although successful, this sneak attack destroyed what remained of US diplomatic credibility, and mirrored the Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar, increasing the likelihood that the US also participated in it. Ironically, instead of triggering surrender, killing the Ayatollah seems to have removed a weak leader and emboldened local forces. The expected collapse of resistance didn’t occur, as Iran prepared for this eventuality following the US attack last year. It had increased the autonomy of local forces, and employed widespread use of decoy munition stockpiles and air defenses. The following days saw Iranian drone and ballistic attacks wear out US/Israel’s already depleted air defense stockpiles, and force relocation of air defenses from the Gulf and South Korea to Israel. Many US bases were hit, likely due to Chinese assistance with Iran’s missile program.
The Persian Gulf’s closure, and end of regional air transport, mean that time isn’t on America’s side. As the price of oil surges, as shortages of food and water spread through the UAE, and as Israel’s cities are pummeled by missiles, political pressure mounts on America to abandon Israel. Iranian morale isn’t collapsing, especially after a vicious attack on a school killed over a hundred children. The US/Israeli attacks likely prolonged the regime’s lifespan, by justifying its narrative in the eyes of Iranian civilians. US/Israeli schemes involving Kurdish allies haven’t materialized, likely due to false promises made to them in Syria, and Gulf nations have so far avoided entering the war, after warning Trump not to initiate it.
The likely outcome of this war will be a false declaration of victory by Trump, a rapid withdrawal of US forces in the Gulf, an acceleration of the petrodollar’s decline, and a resurgence in Russian strength (since Russian oil sanctions must be removed due to global shortage). The US’s inability to defend Gulf states, despite decades of investment, will cause its allies to look elsewhere. Further into the future, nuclear weapon proliferation can be expected, due to the apparently lawless state of geopolitics, and an acceleration of US/Israeli decline.
Since America has failed to decouple itself from Israel, it’s destined to be dragged into cataclysm with it. After fighting countless unwinnable wars on Israel’s behalf, the US has been bled dry, while China sits patiently on the sidelines. Israel’s plan to discard an exhausted America, and replace it with India (much like a virus changes hosts) will fail, as India isn’t the world power it claims to be, and the current instability in the Persian Gulf has destroyed the dream of IMEC. Historically, hegemons fall after becoming entrenched in unwinnable wars. This scenario presents a great opportunity for Türkiye, North Korea, Russia, and China.
