By Recep Teke
A few words on SDF leader Mazloum Abdi’s Europe tour and its broader implications:
◽️Abdi is in Europe to seek support for the SDF vis-à-vis the Syrian government and to involve the Europeans in the SDF’s integration process into the Syrian state.
◽️He needs support because things are not going well for him. As expected, SDF integration is gradually and irrevocably weakening his group’s hold over northeastern Syria, undermining any semblance of Kurdish self-governance.
◽️His efforts to unite Syrian Kurds under one front are not proving successful either, with his long-time ENKS (Kurdish National Council – KNC) rivals talking to Damascus separately and seemingly being favoured by Sharaa.
◽️Abdi hopes that his European backers will push Sharaa to go easy on the SDF over integration and give some further concessions in the direction of self-governance as well as political, cultural and linguistic rights for the Kurds.
◽️But there is not much Europe can do, as it has little leverage over Sharaa. And why would the Europeans use that limited leverage on an issue internal to Syria that carries little strategic value for them?
◽️The Syrian Kurdish issue is not among the files Europe prioritizes when more important issues are at stake, such as counter-ISIS fight and refugee returns. And Damascus is calling the shots on everything significant to Europe.
◽️It makes more sense then to limit relations with the SDF, especially since deepening such ties would risk irritating Damascus, as well as Turkey.
◽️It is reported that Abdi was planning to meet Macron. But Washington did not take this well, as Sharaa would not welcome a Macron-Abdi meeting before an expected Macron visit to Damascus. This also shows the extent of Washington’s pro-Damascus turn in its Syria policy.
◽️It looks like France will replace the US as the main backer of the SDF now that Washington has largely withdrawn support from its Kurdish allies in Syria.
◽️But considering how US support for the SDF poisoned Turkish-American relations for a decade, this does not bode well for Turkish-French relations, adding one more problem to an already tense relationship.
◽️Damascus says Abdi’s visit abroad was not coordinated with them. Abdi’s attempt to pursue an independent foreign policy is something Damascus would find hard to accept. It does not help the SDF’s integration process either, deepening distrust between the parties.
All-in-all, Abdi is trying to secure European support to pressure the Syrian government into implementing the integration deal on terms more favourable to the SDF. But given that the SDF has little to offer to the Europeans and Damascus has all the cards, I don’t think his visit will yield much in the way of tangible benefits for his group.
