The US and Israel’s attacks on Iran and Iran’s responses continue. Despite paying a heavy price, including losing some of its most important leaders, including Khamenei and Ali Laricani, Iran continues to resist, having no choice but to do so, as surrender would mean the end of both the regime and the Iranian state.
Therefore, not surrendering seems like the most reasonable behavior. However, there are so many inconsistencies in the ongoing war that it’s difficult to answer questions like who is winning, who is losing, and when the war will end. Examining both consistent and inconsistent strategies will be useful for future war strategies. Therefore, it’s essential to list the following irrational and clever strategies one by one.
Firstly, it’s clear that the US entering the war as a proxy state on behalf of Israel does not serve American interests. Few people still doubt that Donald Trump’s decisions are unrelated to the Epstein case. It’s clear that Trump wants to complete his presidency and the rest of his life without any documents related to him being exposed. Therefore, he does what the Israeli lobby tells him to do. Trump likely thought that if he could capture Venezuelan leader Maduro and bring him to New York overnight, he could also kill Khamenei and leave Iran leaderless, leading to a quick and absolute victory. However, things didn’t go as planned. Iran is still fighting, and an absolute victory is not in sight. Some experts have noted that he replaced Khamenei with another Khamenei, just like he replaced the Taliban in Afghanistan with the Taliban years later.
Trump is now talking about a ground operation. If he attempts this, many American soldiers will die, and the US president will not be able to escape the accusation that American soldiers are dying for Israel, leading to a crushing defeat in congressional elections. On the other hand, lifting sanctions on Russia and Iran’s oil exports to lower rising oil prices is a significant contradiction. Giving Iran a breather will undoubtedly prolong the regime’s life and lead to more Iranian attacks on Gulf countries’ oil facilities – allowing Iran to sell more oil.
Trump’s policy towards Gulf countries is also a manifestation of inconsistency. Despite Iranian attacks, Gulf countries have behaved reasonably by not entering the war, planning to close the process with minimal damage – a correct decision. Moreover, the recent war has revealed that the US only protects Israel in the region. The US strategy in the war resembles a forester trying to extinguish a fire by creating a circular fire around it to prevent it from spreading to Israel. The circular fire burns both Gulf countries and American soldiers, as the US and Gulf countries’ losses are much greater than Israel’s.
In terms of consistency/inconsistency, Israel appears to be the most intelligent country overall. Firstly, establishing a Jewish state has been a centuries-old dream. They worked hard to achieve this, and after Israel was established, they turned the entire country into a weapons depot to ensure it would never be destroyed again. However, their most notable success has been controlling American politics through their lobby, making it easier for them to do business and suffer fewer casualties.
On the other hand, Israel’s intelligence in identifying Iranian targets and helping the military destroy them is a significant achievement. If Israeli intelligence were not so successful, the military’s technological superiority would not have yielded the expected benefits.
The war on the battlefield and Israel’s intelligence in the US Jewish lobby are significantly reducing Israel’s war costs. However, despite these successes, Israel’s medium-term (not long-term) significant frustration is highly likely. Firstly, they are no longer seen as victims but as perpetrators of genocide. The killing of 70,000 innocent Gazans has revealed how ruthless Israeli society is.
Almost the entire world, including Americans, is now against Israel. American opposition is significant because Israel cannot survive without American support. Countries in the region are actually afraid of America, not Israel. They have not acquired nuclear weapons because of America, and they do not attack Israel because of America. In an America-free environment, ongoing conflicts would eventually force Israelis to emigrate. If America withdraws its support, this situation may eventually occur.
In the context of the ongoing war, the killing of Iran’s religious leader, senior officials, and generals (which is a despicable act) has turned a country that was only verbally involved with Israel and distant in action into a dangerous enemy. The Iranian military, despite being leaderless and engaged in an existential war, is countering with all its might. They do not listen to any politician – and there are few politicians left to listen to. Perhaps by cutting off the snake’s head, you can destroy the rest of its body, but leaving a country leaderless leaves behind an uncontrolled army. This is because, unlike a snake, the rest of the body (country) can survive even without a head.
This is the situation in Iran, and the Iranian military’s movement without a proper chain of command is making the war more devastating for the US and Israel. If diplomacy is to be resumed one day, the military will likely continue to fight and not comply with a final agreement.
In conclusion, one can infer that “killing a country’s leaders in war only drives that country to fight more, not surrender.” Iran is currently in such a position, and if Khamenei and other senior officials were alive, they would not be as aggressive. In a structure without a hierarchy, everyone becomes a decision-maker, and you will have to negotiate with everyone to end the war.
Source: https://www.fokusplus.com/odak/bir-savas-taktigi-olarak-irani-lidersiz-birakmak
